FG and World Bank at Loggerheads Over N54.9tn 2025 Budget Revenue Assumptions

The Federal Government and the World Bank are at odds over Nigeria’s 2025 budget, which totals N54.99 trillion, with the World Bank warning the fiscal plan is overly optimistic and risks forcing the FG to tap the Central Bank’s Ways and Means facility to cover funding gaps.

The World Bank’s Lead Economist, Alex Sienaert, speaking at the launch of the ‘Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth’ report in Abuja, said the budget’s key assumptions – including oil production of 2.1 million barrels per day and a $75 per barrel oil price – are unlikely to materialize given current figures.

He cautioned that if revenue falls short, the government may face growing financing needs, potentially leading to arrears or renewed deficit monetisation, which could undermine fiscal sustainability and confidence in the naira.

Contrastingly, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, insisted the projections are realistic and aligned with Nigeria’s growth potential. He noted that Nigeria has previously produced more than 2.3 million barrels per day and that budgets should be aspirational.

The budget, which includes N13.64 trillion for recurrent costs and nearly N24 trillion for capital projects, anticipates a deficit of N13.08 trillion to be financed through borrowing.

The World Bank also urged the FG to fully channel savings from the petrol subsidy removal into the Federation Account and to eliminate the electricity subsidy, describing it as a regressive drain on resources.

Officials at the event emphasized the importance of fiscal consolidation, transparency in oil revenue reporting, and sustained reforms to achieve inclusive growth and Nigeria’s $1 trillion economy target by 2030.