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US Presidential Election: Who is American’s Choice, Joe Biden Or Trump?

Published

4 years ago

31/10/2020

US Presidential election 2020 is already trending online with many wondering who wins the election, Joe Biden or Donald Trump?

OnyxNews Nigeria quotes reports by the Guardian which says Joe Biden is ahead Donald Trump in the national polls for the 2020 presidential election .

But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. She ended up not winning in the electoral college.

Due to the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory (with the exception of Nebraska and Maine), a handful of swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.

Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states.

Us election 2020
In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we targeted on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after supporting Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could come up as important new swing states this year.

We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).

We present the latest polls with those caveats in mind.

The national polls
The latest polling average kept Biden ahead of Trump nationally.

While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country can point to how the race will develop.

Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker reads a 14-day average of national voting intention elections.

Americans will vote for their next president, comes Tuesday 3rd November 2020, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

The Guardian poll tracker reads the latest polls in eight serious swing states. For Biden to win, he needs to reclaim some of these states of swing.

The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, also another national polls set. Any polls deemed not reliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are not included.

Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results.

If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. After this standardization process, we take a mean average of these daily entries to present the polling average.